The last few rounds have been very solid, but not necessarily boring. Obviously the Berlin Endgames were a slight setback, but overall we can’t complain about the entertainment.
Adams has problems with the Black pieces. He beat Caruana and was very close to beating Kramnik as well, but his loss against Nakamura in the 4th round must’ve been a terrible experience. Lucky for him, he has the White pieces in the last round, facing Anand at 4 draws. Everything points to this being another Berlin Ruy Lopez with a draw as a result.
The big game is Giri versus Kramnik, and after Dubai Open it’s well known that the young Dutch GM has huge problems against the Russian legend. I don’t think Giri will take big risks because of his terrible head-to-head score, and since he has the White pieces I think the risk of a draw is high. I don’t think anyone will be shocked if this becomes a Berlin Ruy Lopez too.
The most entertaining game I think will be Caruana – Nakamura. Caruana hasn’t impressed at all (pretty much since Sinquefield/Bilbao), and Nakamura played an excellent game against Adams in round 4. What’s more important is that it won’t be a Berlin Endgame, and that’s pretty much all I want. I think there are good chances of Nakamura winning this game and clinching the tournament with a stunning comeback.
BET TIP: At the time of writing, there’s 8.4 odds on Nakamura winning the game (on MarathonBet) which is way too high if you ask me.